February 28th - Closer Look

The market is in a very oversold condition , but it doesn't mean that it can't go lower.
Testing the NOV 2002 lows at 70 is possible or even lower.
If in some ways, the 74 zone hold , then we can call it a temporary bottom.
It doesn't mean that it will be the bottom of this bear market, calling a final bottom can be done a long time after the event .

February 28th - Stock Market Review

Current Portfolio - 100,972$
Open Position -

I am out from everything, sold the all portfolio with a lost of 1800$ , the market is very weak. The SPY is on the edge, close at 73.93. I won't take any rist and hold a position in the weekend with such a weak market. The market can open on monday with a big gap down. I will wait to see if the NOV 2008 lows hold, but after today it look realy ugly. If we are going to have some serios selling next week , it will be a tremendous buying opportunity . We are so oversold , that the MACD is twice oversold then NOV 2002 lows.

February 27th - Update

I am out from the USO at 26.66 with a small profit of 198$.

The SPY test the NOV 2008 lows , and the BIG question is if we saw the bottom . lows are tested only one time ..so if the SPY will hold the 74.1 we have the bottom.

If the SPY break 74.1 we get a real panic. I bought the portfolio again .. detail later.

February 27th - Stock Market Review

Current Portfolio - 102,572$
Open position - Short USO 300 at 27.32

The market is still at this critical level QQQQ 28 , and now is traiding under this level . The big quastion is if it's a false breakdown or a real one, we are going to know tomorrow or on monday.
A real breakdown can take us to the capitulation stage.

I am short a very small position in oil due to the fact that after a rally from 23 to almost 28 and
the 28 level is a potential resistance level , our stop is at 27.7 . A puulback can be until 24.

Long in the QQQQ can be considered above 28.7 and a clear long above 29.2 .

February 26th - Update

Sold all of the Portfolio, in my opinion i was too early with the buy and hold position
Sold with a profit of 2900$

QQQQ- Break the trend line , now it can go sideways or maybe lower .

February 26th - Closer look

If we take a closer look at the QQQQ , a rally to 29.3-29.6 is possible an then
a breakdown to the 28 level .
Testing this level again will probably break it and then we get the capitulation stage.
A good possiblity to trade will be to take some QID at 29.5 with a stop above 29.6-29.7 .

February 26th - Stock Market Review

Current Portfolio - 99,672$
Open Position - See Portfolio - in details.

The market is in a very fragile stage the 28 level is still holding for the QQQQ . From this place there is two possibilities, the market starting to rally and the 74 level in the SPY will be a double bottom, or the 28 level break and we get the last stage....the capitulation stage. The capitulation stage or the final breakdown can take us to the 600-650 in the SPY, that is 20% drop.

Even if the market will drop 10%-15% and even 20% it will be for a very short period in my opinion, and from there probably will start the real rally.

USO - Had a nice rally today, is at the resistance level 26 . Probebly a pull back to 24.5 will be good for the up side move.

If the market starting to drop i will protect my portfolio with a 2000 QID and some FAZ.

February 25th - Stock Market Review

Current portfolio - 99,672$
Open Position -

XLF - Even with a rally of 12% is still in a down trend , now is at the resistance level 8.

USO - The Oil Starting to make a base , a long position maybe above 25.

SPY - No change still in down trend .

QQQQ- The support at 28 held , and gave as a nice rally of 3.3% . Long position above 29.

February 24th - Stock Market Review

Current Portfoilio - 99,672$
Open position -

QQQQ - Is at the low trend line of the range 31.7 - 28.

SPY - Testing the lows from NOV 2008.

XLF - In down trend no sign for a change.

DIA - The dow jones is at 11 years lows, no change still in down trend.

USO - The oil starting to make a base.

February 23rd - Arnold Van Den Berg

He is one of the investors i realy like ,Since founding Century Management in 1974, Arnie Van Den Berg has handily beaten all of the indices. Through September 30, 2007, he had managed to earn returns of 16.62% per year .

Here is the last Conference call from February 17th .

http://www.centman.com/UpdateConversation2-17-09.html

February 21st - Stock Market Review

Current Portfolio - 99,672$

Open Positiom -

QQQQ - The qqqq is at the low trend line 28-28.5 of the range 31.7-28 . Long position can be taken above 29.2 , and short under 28.

SPY - Probably going to test the NOV 2008 lows at 74.

USO- Look like it starting to make a base , long above 24.5 .

SMH - The semiconductors , as the qqqq is at the low trend line of the range 19.2-16 .

GLD - The gold almost reach the 100 level .

EURO/DOLLAR - Going to test the 1.23 .

DIA - Close at 11 years lows , no sing for a change in the down trend.

XLF - Still down trend no sign for a change in the financials .

February 21st - Closer Look QQQQ, XLF

Frontline meltdown

Full Program

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meltdown/view/

February 20th - Stock Market Review

Current Portfoilio - 99,672$
Open Position -

DIA - The Dow jones break the NOV 2008 lows , and now is at 2002 prices .....no sign for a change.

XLF - Down trend no sign for a chenge , how much lower no one knows.

SPY - Probably will test the NOV 2008 lows 74.

USO - Still in a down trend , it will be interesting to see if there will be a change.

QQQQ - Going to test the 28, and probably lower.

February 19th - SOLD UYG

Sold UYG 10000 at 2.38 with 5100$ lose

February 19th - USO

The USO is up 5% let see if we get a change in this down trend. Above 24 it will be interesting.

February 19th - DTG

DTG is another stock i like the same as CAR , rent and leases vehicles , lost 99% . It is only suitable for smal investment.

February 19th - DTG

February 19th - Stock Market Review

Current Portfolio - 104,772$
Open Position - UYG 10,000 2.89

USO - What a destruction of wealth , amazing ,where is the analysts that gave a price target of 200$ and even 1000$ for oil. In my opinion oil will be one of the best investment in the futures.

SPY - Down trend no sign for a change.

XLF - Maybe we get here a double bottom , the same as the oil in my opinion the financials will be one of the best investmet when the bear market end.

CAR - This is one example of destruction of wealth , avis and budget is now at 0.59$ have lost 99% from the beginning of the bear market. If this company won't file for bankruptcy it will be a great investment. The market have no hope , this is the time for a change.

February 18th - BUY UYG

The market look like there is no hope...

Bought some more UYG 3000 average 2.89

February 18th - Update SOLD QLD

Sold QLD 4800 at 25.78 with a lose of 4896$

February 18th - Update QQQQ

The QQQQ test the low from yesterday and now is at the top range 29.6 testing and breaking this level again and we can get a nice rally to the diclining MA 200.